Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
